Showing posts with label Bills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bills. Show all posts

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Sister Blog

There has been more action at my sister blog Fire Dick Jauron than over here. Do go check it out and pray for the demoralized fans of Buffalo that their deliverance from Dick will soon come.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Kickoff Thoughts

... Some random thoughts and predictions while waiting for Trent Edwards to throw his first 7 yard out...

-- This was the best news I saw all week.

-- I strongly recommend this piece at the Goose's Roost on what being a Bills fan is like.

-- Speaking of the Bills, I was back home a couple of weekends ago, visiting family and friends and was a little surprised at how economically depressed the general region is. Particularly the rural area where I grew up. The local grocery store (once upon a time Bells) closed up shop making the closest supermarket a 15 minute drive away. The closest movie theater to my mom is a 45 minute drive. You pass 3 different Wal-Marts on the way. Cause and effect?

-- And my mom is one of the lucky ones - owns her house, minimal debt, has my dad's pension to live off of. Most are much less fortunate.

-- Some quick predictions... AFC Division winners - Pats, Colts, Steelers, San Diego. Wildcards - Bills and Jags. NFC Division winners - Eagles, Packers, Saints, Cardinals. Wildcards - Cowboys and Vikings. Pats vs. Eagles in SB XLIII. Pats win.

-- Marshawn Lynch will rush for more than 1400 yards.

-- I will go under .500 picking against the spread.

-- I will enjoy several rums and tonic today.

-- Here are the quick picks (trust me, I had the Giants Thursday): Saints (-3.5), Eagles (-8), Dolphins (+3), Chiefs (-15.5), Steelers (-6.5), Ravens (+1.5), Lions (-3), Bills (-1.5), Jags (-3), Browns (+6), Panthers (+9), Cards (-2.5), Colts (-9.5), Packers (-2) and Broncos (-3).

-- The Sox will catch Tampa. They seem to be getting healthy at just the right time. Beckett looked strong Friday. Masterson has developed into a dependable 7th/8th inning guy. I would much prefer the Sox win the division and face the Central winner than get the wild card and face the Angels (although the Sox seem to have their number in the playoffs).

-- That's all for today. More interesting stuff later today or tomorrow.

Go BILLS!!!

Friday, November 9, 2007

Friday Afternoon Update

Relatively quiet afternoon at work.. so on to the updates.

The Bills Update

YES. This guy is doing the Bills-Dolphins game this weekend:



Since Eagle/Wilcots are off this week, I guess that makes them officially the Z-team of CBS broadcasters. And if I had an HDTV, I could watch the game in hi-def.

Seeing that Gus is doing the game made me wonder if I would remember differently some of the famous and infamous moments in Bills history if he had been calling the games.

Wide Right: Norwood lines up for the kick. This is at the EDGE of Norwood's distance. Marv Levy is putting his faith in the young kicker out of JAMES MADISON. It's all on the line for the Bills. The snap, the hold is down. The Kick is UP... And... It's NO GOOD!! NO GOOD!! WIDE RIGHT! And TIME HAS EXPIRED! The GIANTS WIN! Somehow the Giants are able to carry Parcells OFF THE FIELD. OH MY, Scott Norwood will carry this moment TO HIS GRAVE. SLEEP TIGHT SCOTTY! HA HAAAAAA"

Frank Reich comeback against Houston in '93: "Forget about the Nazis, here in Buffalo it's the RISE OF THE FOURTH REICH as the Bills unleash the stormtroopers aganist the Oilers. Ha haaaaaaa." "Christie lines up for the winning kick. And it's GOOOOOOOD!!!!! Christie drives a STAKE through the hearts of the Oilers as the Bills win in DRAMATIC FASHION!! DIE NOSFERATU!!!

(sidenote: this game was NOT televised locally in Buffalo because the Bills actually did not sell out the game. A playoff game. I had to listen to freaking Van Miller on the radio).

Music City Miracle: The kick is short to Neal. Neal hands off to Wycheck.. and Oh, Wycheck HEAVES it to Andre Dyson, and Dyson is RUNNING. OH NO, IT's A CLEAR PATH TO PAYDIRT. OH NO. NOBODY's GOING TO CATCH HIM. And Dyson is IN. And it's PANDEMONIUM in Tennessee. Rob Johnson can't bear to look. Wade Phillips is STUNNNED as the Titans RIP THE BEATING HEARTS out of the Bills's chests. KALI MA, they'll SEE YOU IN HELL!!!!!"

No, that still would have sucked.

Last Second Jason Elam Field Goal: Oh wait, he actually did call this game:



I'm surprised he didn't refer to it as a "CHINESE FIRE DRILL!!!!"

Anyway, it's always a "SPECIAL GAME" when Gus is announcing.

-- As for actual analysis? Happy that Losman is starting. He's like Brett Favre, except without the joy. Or much of the talent.

For actual analysis, go to Bflo Blog for the Tailgate.

Goose's Roost has an interesting post on Jim Kelly and Jack Kemp being potential white knights in a future sale of the Bills.

That's it. My prediction? (not that it matters): Bills 21, Miami 17

The Taxes Update

-- The House today passed a bill providing for a one-year AMT patch and extending a bunch of popular tax deductions, the cost of which is offset by changing the tax treatment of carried interest in private equity funds and eliminating offshore deferrals of compensation (where the payor is tax-indifferent). The Senate has not introduced a bill addressing AMT relief and apparently won't until December.

Which really is an abdication of Congresional responsibility. You see, even if a bill is introduced in December, debated, passed, harmonized with the House and signed by Bush, it won't be in time for the IRS to make changes to tax forms necessary to allow taxpayers to file returns correctly. This means that millions of taxpayers will end up overpaying their taxes and seeking refunds later (because they will be forced to file based on the law that is in effect now which sucks millions of taxpayers into the AMT. I think the House is probably more to blame for waiting so long to introduce a bill when EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT THE ISSUE.

-- One other interesting story from last week that is semi-sports related: The IRS has announced an initiative targeting foreign golfers, tennis players and entertainers who work in the U.S. That's right - Roger Federer is a tax cheat* The concern is that foreign entertainers are not paying their "fair share" of withholding taxes on income earned in the U.S. (there is a 30% withholding tax applicable to nonresident aliens performing services within the United States). The focus apparently is on the structures through which entertainers earn money within the United States and making sure that withholding takes place somewhere along the chain. This is all part of closing the tax gap.

*May not actually be a tax cheat, but this commercial is ridiculous:



And what the hell is Henry saying? "I nevuh fthk about ystdy".... Thanks Thierry, er Terry. Go back to playing with your ball.

No Death Update right now. Maybe later.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Taking a Deep Breath

Lots to talk about today, first and foremost:

The Red Sox

It's amazing how something can go on for more than 6 months, night in, night out, and then be over in a flash - like the previous 6 months never happened. That's how I feel today after the Sox swept the Rockies. Forgotten are the calls to bench Pedroia for Cora, to trade for Jermaine Dye at the deadline and bench Drew, to go back in time and reverse the Beckett/Lowell for Hanley Ramirez/Anubal Sanchez trade, to inquire whether Ortiz and Manny have been juicing all these years. Forgotten are the picayune and picky - whether Beckett should have pitched Game 4 of the ALCS, whether Tito should have pulled him in Game 1 after 5, whether Julian Tavarez should have been on the postseason roster instead of Gagne. Today, there is just joy and relief and the fulfillment of expectations. That is the biggest change since '04 and the reason why many people now think the Sox are the new Yankees. Becuase we expect success and are gratified when it is achieved, instead of hoping for success and overwhelmed and surprised when it happens. A great change.

some wrap up thoughts:

-- This team was built, as Joe Posnanski so aptly pointed out before the ALCS, on imrpoved starting pitching, an improved bullpen and an improved Mike Lowell. Those three things, plus the emergence and contributions of Ellsbury and Pedroia were on full display the last week.

-- Someone at MLB - PLEASE order FOX to replace McCarver and Buck with an announcing team that actually is involved in the game, doesn't just promote the hot storyline and isn't reduced to spouting totally empty platitudes (actually Buck was not that bad this year, but McCarver has been reduced to a caricature of his already shopworn self).

-- I was not at all interested in the World Series last year - partly because work was absolutely insane, but more because the Sox were not involved and my dad had just died. I didn't think of him a single time last night. I'm not sure if that's progress or just life, but there it is.

The Blogs

Soxaholix are note perfect

Jere has his head in the clouds and has a really cool recording of the call of the end of last night's game. Give it a listen. Man, I miss Castiglione.

Away Team has a cool set of pictures celebrating last night's win.

If this video doesn't bring tears to your eyes, I don't know what to tell you (via Sox & Dawgs)

That's it on the Sox. I'll leave you with one picture (woke up this morning and had this greet me on the cover of the NY Times):



The Bills

Is it o.k., as a fan, to be extremely happy your team won, but still have dissatisfied, wondering how they did it, and worried for the rest of the season?

That's how I felt about the Bills 13-3 win over the Jets yesterday.

It's as though Jauron and the coaching staff (more Fairchild than anyone else) was trying to take away the Bills' chances of succeeding as well as screwing up. It's like when you're raising a kid (I can say this now that I have one) - you can't put them in a bubble - yeah, they'll fall, bump their heads, get hit by a car, whatever, but they'll also have a chance to succeed. Watching the first 3 quarters, it was apparent that while Edwards had been designated the starter, he wasn't "A Starter". Some examples:

-- Calling a shovel pass on 3rd and 8 in the Red Zone on the Bills' first successful drive. Yeah, they were in field goal range, but again, what is the risk of taking a shot at the end zone there? You throw a pick, you throw a pick - they're not making the playoffs so they should take more chances (note, this is exactly the OPPOSITE of the horrible call against the Cowboys when they were AHEAD by two scores to pass on a similar down, distance and situation).

-- Another conservative call in the third quarter when they were driving - 3rd and 4 and they call a flanker screen - it was busted anyway.

-- 3rd and short late in the game, and they run straight up the middle for no gain - the third consecutive handoff up the middle. A run is the right call, but why not a sneak, or an inside handoff (they got a FG to go up 6-3, but could have sustained the drive with a better call).

Luckily, they called a few downfield passes for Losman which put the game away - one which Roscoe Parrish should have hauled in, one that Evans improbably did.

Like I said, I like the result, but I doubt the plan.

The Bills blogs:


Goose's Roost has a great picture of Losman.

The prolific Brian Galiford over at Buffalo Rumblings has the game story and a piece on the "QB controversy".

My take on the "controversy" is that the team was built to run an offense that features a lot of downfield passing and a power running game. It was not built for a game manager, dink and dunk style game such as they have tried with Edwards. That woudl argue for Losman to start; however, either way, they HAVE to pick one guy or the other and run the offense they think gives the team the best chance to win WITH THAT GUY.

I'm happy they're 3-4 with the injuries they've had, but they should be 5-2, and that failure is due to a failure of process.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

A Day Late...

But we'll do the Bills update anyway.

I knew it would be a close game, but I had it coming out the other way - with Baltimore grinding away at the Bills D and coming out on top on a late FG. I was pleasantly surprised.

Overall, Edwards did fine given (i) the defense and (ii) the playcalling. As I thought, they took about 3 shots downfield. One connected with Evans. One resulted in a pass interference play. One was woefully underthrown.

He's still not crisp on intermeidate routes - especially to the sideline - what got him in trouble against Dallas and caused his 1 INT in this game. As the TV guys noted, he doesn't look off coverage and so gives defenders time to jump routes (although his INT was just a bad throw).

I was originally of the opinion that they should stick with Losman. He showed enough down the stretch last year to get another shot. But he clearly isn't Levy's or Jauron's guy and Ralph himself seemed to have ordered the switch. He won't himself beat any good pass defenses, but he'll pull a Trent Dilfer and allow Lynch and the D to keep them in close games. All that said, I agree with Brian Galiford at Buffalo Rumblings that they need to stick with one guy or else Jauron should be fired.

Speaking of Lynch - that kid is going to be good, especially once the Bills get a good O line. He has excellent patience for a rookie, sticking behind the line until a hole opens up. Excellent draft pick.

Playcalling and clock management? Meh. Not nearly agressive enough on the drives in the red zone (a draw on 3rd and 10 from your opponent's 10? Really?) And then once again, down the stretch, much too conservative on offense (running out the clock is fine, but contrary to Easterbrook, repetaed runs right up the middle won't get it done - especially with this O line) and on defense (it was more a case of Boller missing plays - Bills were once again willing to give up yards). It worked because Baltimore's defense is so inept, but they've got to be more agressive when in TD territory.

Game recaps:

Goose's Roost

Buffalo Rumblings

Bills Gab

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Quick NFL Thoughts



The Bills play the Ravens today in Buffalo. It's homecoming for Willis McGahee. There has been quite a bit of trash-talking by Bills fans this week, in anticipation of McGahee's return. Some of it has been over the top. However, let's take a look at what this classy guy said on his way out of town last year:
Coming from Miami, I was used to partying, going out, just having something to do every night. Restaurants, whatever. Going to Buffalo, it was like hitting a brick wall. Like, Damn. Can't go out, can't do nothing. There's an Applebee's, a TGI Friday's, and they just got a Dave & Busters. They got that, and I'm like, 'What the' And, you know, the women?

You see, when I was in college that's what I used to thrive off of. The better you do, the more fame you get. So you know, it was like, I was used to that. And then you get to Buffalo and no matter how you do, it's the same. It's no big city. You know what I did every day? I came home and played video games.

That's nice. Typicl grad of The U. Anyway, hopefully the Bills' Run D will get up for the game - unlikely given their record thus far, but a fan can hope.


BfloBlog has the tailgate report.

Buffalo Rumblings breaks down the Ravens.

Goose's Roost has a better takedown of McGahee than I could muster.

My prediction? This will be a close game. The Ravens offense, McGahee notwithstanding is gross. Boller has his last week in there and will be pressing to try to get another week as the starter. This will result in some takeaways for the Bills.

On the offensive side, Edwards will throw deep and hopefully link up with Evans for a couple of long plays. If he connects, they will win. If he doesn't they will lose. The game will come down to one or two big plays (because the Bills will not be able to move the ball with any real regularity) and takeaways.

The score: Ravens 16, Bills 14

The Quick Picks

COWBOYS (-9.5) over Vikings

BILLS (+3) over Ravens

Bucs (+2) over LIONS What have the Lions done the last 3 weeks to inspire any confidence?

Patriots (-16.5) over DOLPHINS

SAINTS (-9) over Falcons

GIANTS (-9) over Niners This is the week that Eli reverts to last season's Eli, of course.

WASHINGTON (-9) over Cardinals Well there goes my theory that the SG doesn't use the racist nickname. Wonder why it said Washington last week and Redskins this week.

Titans (-1) over TEXANS

BENGALS (-6) over Jets I hate the Jets

Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS

Rams (+8) over SEAHAWKS I thought Qwest Field was supposed to be a tough place to play?

EAGLES (-5) over Bears Wow, I am taking a lot of favorites this week.

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Steelers For avoidance of doubt, I also hate the freaking Steelers.

Jags (+3) over COLTS I hope.

That's it - enjoy the games.

Also, Paul Byrd is a cheating cheater.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Friday Randomness

1. Sabres I have not had the time to really get down and dirty with the Sabres this year (wait, that came out wrong) - to really follow the Sabres this year. I had expected they would be down following the loss of Drury (Go BU) and Briere. After the first two games, I looked to be right, but they bounced back nicely.

Of course, Goose's Roost and BfloBlog cover the Sabres much more closely (and betterly) than I could hope to.

For example,

Goose's Roost has this excellent breakdown of the Jochen Hecht deal - a great signing, and great sign, that Drury and Briere notwithstanding, Regier is going to try to keep the young core together.

And BfloBlog has this hilarious Daily Show-esque mock interview. I don't want to spoil it - just check it out. The funniest thing I've read all day (especially since Deadspin has turned into one hell of a whine and bitch-fest the past few days).

2. Bills The enterprising soul who set up the Fire Dick Jauron blog has a new post tying the potential Toronto games and the benching of J.P. Losman (and his flowing locks) to the ineptitude of Mr. Jauron. (Note: Goose's Roost also weighed in on this)

As far as this weekend's game is concerned, the Bills D should keep it close - there will be some revenge factor against McGahee and Boller is atrocious. The Ravens D is still scary, but not the stout squad it has been in the past. I'd take the Bills and the under - then again - I am a horrible handicapper.

3. Miscellany Joe Posnanski's blog is tremendous, although the commenters are crazy.

In local news, TaxBoy is nearing 9 months now and is standing - not unassisted - he needs to hold on to something to keep from falling. I can't believe it. He also weighs about 20 lbs - so now he's noticeable when I carry him around.

St. John - 5 weeks away. Can't wait.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Rainy Tuesday Night Update

The Bills Letdown

It was quite strange when I turned to the Taxwife not 10 minutes after the Bills lost last night and said "well, they deserved to lose that game - if you can't win getting six turnovers, you deserve to lose". In other words, serenity now.

This morning, before even going on the blogs to check out others' reactions to the games (links below), I thought a little more critically about the game...

-- The Bills gave up an easy 3 at the end of the first half by attempting a 53 yard field goal on a 4th and 3. Not to go all Gregg Easterbrook or anything, but going for it on 4th and 3 has a higher positive outcome than attempting a 53 yarder. Punting may have been the best move there.

-- They sent Roscoe Parrish on an end around (it may have been a reverse) on 3rd and 2 in Dallas territory. It was predictably blown up and the Bills needed to punt. A simple run up the middle or toss over the middle to Lynch or Royal (who was a great weapon in the game (would have obviously been much more productive).

-- Jauron misused times out in the second half, resulting in a bad onside kick defense formation.

-- Defensive playcalling down the stretch was atrocious, giving up easy yards over the middle and then the inexcusable 8 yard sideline route with 7 seconds left. Again, they could have called a time out if they had the wrong personnel on the field, or to make sure the young defense was on the right page.

-- The decision to pass on third and medium deep in Dallas territory in the 4th quarter is inexcusable. That should have been a fireable offense.

I realize that most of the above decisions were not made directly by Jauron, they were made by his coordinators, Brian Fairchild and Perry Fewell (Dr. Z really tears Fewell a new one in particular). Still, Jauron is the HEAD coach and has to ultimately take responsibility for the overall schemes and the decisions to try trick plays on third and short. Most importantly, it is clear that the Bills young players are trying extremely hard and giving it all they have, but they are young. They need a solid gameplan that will not let them down and a coaching staff that knows when to take a breather, settle the troops down and focus that energy. That is sorely lacking this year and it is clear to me that Jauron is not the right man for the job.

Others' more precise takes on last night:

Bflo Blog (special thanks to BfloBlog for linking to the Taxman, by the way)

Buffalo Rumblings

The Goose's Roost

I guess the silver lining I was looking for is that Jauron can't screw up the Bills this Sunday.

In happier news....

The Baseball Update

The ALCS and NLCS are set. Word from Boston is that Schilling will start Game 2 for the Sox, with Dice-K going in game 3. This makes sense insofar as Dice-K has been about 3/4 of a run better on the road than at home this year; however, the way the series lines up, that would have Dice-K going in game 7. I'm not sure how I feel about that, except that the Cubs-D-Backs series showed the fallacy of planning too far ahead in the tournament (although fundamentally, I think Lou was in the right pulling Z).

I'm sticking by my previous prediction of Sox in 6 over the Indians. I only got half of the NLCS teams correct, but I'll stick with the team I did get right - Rockies in 7.

The Taxes Update

Senator Reid announced today that no carried interest legislation would make it through the Senate in 2008. No surprise. Makes for an interesting election year issue. Romney has already pledged no new taxes if he is elected.

The Death Update

A rather obscure one today. Nolan Herndon passed away Sunday at the age of 88 from pneumonia. He was a member of the famed Doolittle Raiders who engaged in one of the most daring aerial missions of World War II. The mission, a bombing raid over Tokyo in the Spring of '42 was memorialized in the book and film Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo, with a screenplay by blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo (ironic that a writer of a film known as borderline propaganda was later blacklisted for refusing to name names).

Anyway, back to Mr. Herndon, he retired from the military shortly after the war ended and passed away apparently at his home in South Carolina. The obit is here.

FIRE DICK JAURON

All I can say after last night's game is that the Bills' coaching staff is an abortion of an enigma of some bad sea urchin.

Go here for a blog advocating the termination of Coach Jauron, forthwith.

And take Fairchild and Fewell while you're at it!

Monday, October 8, 2007

Are You Ready for some.... Bleeech

Yeah, it's a nice story and all that MNF is coming back to Ralph Wilson for the first time since 1994, but let's be real, it's bound to be ugly.

Here's my humble breakdown:

When the Bills pass: It's hard to know what to expect. Edwards is starting his second pro game and although he looked decent last week, he was dangerously off-target with a lot of his completions - the WRs bailed him out. The Jets' pass defense was soft so he was able to get away with it - i.e., the WRs had room to adjust. Dallas is middle of the pack in passing YPG against (19th), but is tied for the league lead in INTs (9). Now, given they've faced Grossman, Trent Green, Bulger (last week) and Eli, we are talking mistake-prone guys, but still. Not auspicious. Inauspicious, even.

Conclusion: Bills passing need to throw deep early to try to loosen up the Cowboys' D and then try to push down the field with controlled middle-range passes. Hoepfully Royal will be a target.

When the Bills run: I got some flak on a Bills message board this week from a Cowboys fan for calling the Cowboys' run D "soft". Stats-wise, they are anything but soft, ranking 10th last year in rushing YPG and even better this year (4th overall). My point was more that they hadn't faced any legit offenses, but I guess the Bills would also not constitute a real offense. It's going to be a tough go for Lynch.

Conclusion: Bills need to get lucky.

When the Cowboys pass: Romo has not been particularly accurate this year, but Owens and Crayton have impressive YPC stats. Jabari Greer has the unenviable task of covering Owens (I would have thought he'd be on Crayton and McGee would be on Owens). Hopefully Schoebel and Kelsey can get some pressure on the edges, but then again, Romo's mobility could counteract that as he works well outside the pocket. Word is that the Bills practiced all week against a guy who continually rolled out, so hopefully that will help. But I doubt it. They are, after all, dead last against the pass.

Conclusion: Bills need to get serious pressure on Romo and LBs need to be disciplined in coverage. Also, Jabari Greer needs to be the Greer of week 4, not the Greer of week 3.

When the Boys run: It's all about MBIII. Bills' 22nd rated run D will probably have trouble containing him as his bruising style doesn't mesh well with the Bills' 4-3 setup which matches up better against quick backs. In addition, the Bills will constantly be dropping extra guys back in coverage to cover Witten out of the backfield which will give the linemen less help against the run. I predict that the Cowboys come out and run on 75% of the plays on their first drive.

Conclusion: Bills are facing the best RB they've faced all year. It probably won't be pretty unless they can strip him (but he's never lost a fumble in his career).

The Prediction: Cowboys 38, Bills 13

Other Bills links:

Bflo Blog's open game thread

The Goose's Roost also can't find many positives about tonight's game.

Buffalo Rumblings' open game thread

Buffalowdown's silver linings, such as they are.

Oh, and this is nice. Way to represent, Buffalo. MNF stayed away from Foxboro for like 20 years because of idiocy like this.

Enjoy the game!

Who Will Lose First?

Ed. Note: Normal programming will resume around 6

So the knuckleheads on Weei this afternoon (Smerlas, Ted DeOssie, etc.) were joking around wondering who would lose first, the Patriots or the BC Eagles? The consensus seems to be that the Eagles will lose first.

Not so fast my friend - let's take a look and add the Celtics to it for good measure.

Patriots: Upcoming schedule: 10/14 - at Dallas, 10/21 - at Miami, 10/28 - Washington, 11/4 - at Indianapolis, 11/18 - at Buffalo, 11/25 - Philly, 12/3 - at Baltimore, 12/9 - Pittsburgh, 12/16 - Jets, 12/23 - Miami, 12/29 - at Giants.

On paper, looks like possible losses are at Dallas, home against Indy, at Baltimore and home against Pittsburgh. My guess, assuming Indy has gotten healthy, is that the Pats lose at Indy on 11/4 and then run the table.

First loss: 11/4

BC Eagles: Upcoming schedule: 10/13 - at ND, 10/25 - at Va. Tech, 11/3 - Florida St., 11/10 - at Maryland, 11/17 - at Clemson, 11/24 - Miami.

Eagles should take care of ND, but the road game in Blacksburg should be tough. Ditto at Maryland. They're on fire now, though, so I'll say they beat Va. Tech, but lose an upset on the road at Maryland (bookies in Cleveland Circle will rejoice, however).

First loss: 11/10

Celtics: Upcoming schedule: 11/2 - Washington, 11/4 - at Toronto, 11/7 - Denver, 11/9 - Atlanta, 11/10 - at NJ

Enough. They'll get dusted by the Nuggets at home on the 7th. Garnett will blow out his achilles and the Celtics will head for another out of the playoffs finish.

First loss: 11/7

I'm predicting the first loss will go Pats, Celtics, BC Eagles (unless any of Indy's weapons are hurt in which case the Pats will lose to the Ravens on the road on 12/3).

I'll keep track as the season progresses.

The better question is whether the above 3 teams will have more losses combined than the Bills by the end of November. I say no. Unfortunately.

Update, 11/9: The Eagles lost to Florida State on 11/3. As of this writing, though, the Bills have double the losses (4) the 3 Boston teams have (2). Note also that I said the Pats would lose to Indy UNLESS Indy's weapons are hurt. Score

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Real quick

I've updated the link list to include Joe Posnanski's new blog. Good stuff. Check it out.

Also, Sox = Awesome. Yankees = Annoying. I haven't seen any game stories of the sox win, othert than the usual suspects. The Projo Blog, as usual, kicks the Globe and Herald's "blogs" asses. Go there to see post-game reaction.

My NFL picks (below) are horrible. Don't ever look to me for gambling advice. That said, take the over tomorrow and lay the points (despite the fact that I never bet against the Bills).

Enough tonight. More tomorrow. Go Bills.

Quick Sunday Updates

Poor blogging the past couple of days. Of course, the Sox are now up 2-0, the Yanks are down 2-0 and the NLCS is set with the old-school clash of the D-Backs and Rockies. I plan on doing an "ugliness breakdown" of the other series to see if my theory holds (that the ugliest team usually wins). That will come later. For now..

The Baseball Update

I've never experienced such a (so far) stress free playoff series as the Sox-Angels has been. Massive confidence going in, no stress when down or tied and a feeling of knowing they will pull it out in the end. Is this what it was like to be a Yankees fan from '96-'00?

Anyway, Game 3 is in 3+ hours - Schilling v. Jered Weaver. Again, from an uglieness standpoint, it is:



vs.




Come on. Who can resist those flowing blonde locks, and Schill, the Jack Bauer look ain't working for you.

Advantage: Sox

Three things I noticed: (1) The bullpen was sick. Thank god. Delcarmen has been pitching well for a while now, but it was great to see Okajima looking solid and Papelbon, while not getting strike calls he should have gotten, keeping it together and shutting down the Angels. (2) Dice-K looked awful. Some folks have been saying that he would have righted the ship, given the chance, but extremely hittable, still nibbling, missing spots. Not a Game 2 starter. If the Sox advance, he should be the Game 3 guy. (3) Again, the TBS crew was about a step or two behind during the game. Better than Game 1, but, for example, they made no note of the fact that Stephen King was clapping the back of 17 year old Joe Vinik when the latter stole a foul popup from Jeff Mathis. A detail that would have made the catch that much cooler went unnoticed. On the bright side, at least Jose Mota could string a sentence together. We'll see how they fare during Game 3.

Checking in with the Sox Blogs over the past couple of days:

Jere at Sox Fan from Pinstripe Territory has another spectacular photo gallery from Game 2. Check it out - good quips on Joba falling apart.

Keep your Sox On has some help from Tawny Kitaen and David Coverdale in describing the feeling of watching this team. It's kind of like what I said above - supreme confidence so far (hope we're not Icarus).

Over the Monster has thoughts from Game 2.

Joe McDonald at the projo blog has the weather report from Anaheim (windy) and the lineup - same as Games 1 and 2.

Sox and Dawgs has the report, via ESPN.com that Torre will exit stage left (via the hook) if the Yankees don't win the ALDS. Stupid move, but understandable.

Quick NFL Picks

Seeing as how it is 12:30, just time for quick picks (same lines as the SG, home teams in ALLCAPS):

SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
CHEIFS (+2) over Jaguars
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Lions (I still don't believe)
TITANS (-8) over Falcons
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Seahawks (+6) over STEELERS (Pittsburgh is not that good. I'll believe them when they beat someone good)
Browns (+16.5) OVER PATRIOTS (I mean, the Pats have to blow one of these big lines one of these days, right?)
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS (Frerotte? Frer-no)
GIANTS (-3.5) over Jets
Bucs (+9.5) over COLTS
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
NINERS (+3) over Ravens (Ravens offense falls apart this week). This one looks like a push to me
PACKERS (-3) over Bears
BILLS (+10) over Cowboys.

Bills are clearly not a good team, but (1) I always take them, and (2) I think their D will stand up and they will put enough points on the board to stay close - have the Cowboys really shut down a good offense this year?

On the Bills, here are the links (spotty so far since it's a Monday night game):

Nothing from BfloBlog so far.

Brian Galiford at Buffalo Rumblings has a breakdown of the Cowboys and confirms my assumption (above) that the 'Boys haven't really shut down a solid O yet (not that the Bills O is solid, but less to be afraid of).

Goose's Roost has no football news thus far, but does have a great photblog of the Sabres' home opener which, of course, they lost 6-4 to the Islanders (and they lost the second half of the home-at-home series last night 3-2).

Finally, in a post that warms my heart, Brian at Bflo Blog reports that longtime Buffalo sportscaster Ed Kilgore has a blog. Far be it from me to disparage anyone's blogging efforts, but I sense a little of "Kings Things" in this endeavor.

Enjoy!

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Late Night Updates

The Tax Update

No major news today (I'm not going to link to the tax cases the Supreme Court is hearing this term), so here are some blog posts from the past week:

Victor Fleischer on Senator Levin's bill to eliminate the book/tax disparity in employer compensation deductions for comp. paid with stock options (as a reminder, for financial reporting purposes, companies generally expense the cost of options upon grant, or sometimes over an exercise period, but can include the deduction for tax purposes only when the employee includes the comp. in its income - generally at exercise when the deduction will be greater than the initial financial reporting expense). I still am missing the "abuse" this is trying to get at there is tax parity on the employee/employer side for comp paid with stock options - not sure why GAAP and tax need to agree in all respects - GAAP is frequently a more realistic measure of economic reality than tax - there is nothing inherently wrong with that.

The Tax Policty Blog notices a bill proposed by Rep. Obey (D-WI) that would impose a "war tax" on the American people - progressively based. Good luck with that Obie.

And from Taxalicious is this clip from the Simpsons of Homer interacting with the IRS.

Check them all out.

The Death Update

Of course, the big name yesterday was Queens' own Al Oerter, who passed away from heart failure at 71. He, like Jim Ryun was frequently referred to as a "schoolboy champ" of his sport, the discus. He famously appeared in, and won golds in, four consecutive Summer Olympiads, a feat that has been matched only by Carl Lewis. The obit is here.

A less-known name belongs to Ralph Sturges. Anyone who has been to Mohegan Sun, however, has him to thank. He helped the Mohegan tribe achieve federal recognition, a precursor, in most cases, to receving a state license to construct and operate a casino on tribal land. I've been to Mohegan once - it was great (even if they stopped serving alcohol too early). Thank you Mr. Sturges. The obit is here.

The Football Update

A roundup of the Buffalo Bills blogs is here:

Bills Locker has the early injury report on Monday night's game against Dallas. Youbuty will be out again. Greer will get the start. He was tremendous against the Jets - we'll see how he fares against the Boys.

Brian Galliford at Buffalo Rumblings has the first quarter report card. Not too much to disagree with here - the Bills are, after all, 1-3 (albeit against 3-1 Pittsburgh, 4-0 NE and 2-2 Denver). I guess I'm not really as impressed with Lynch as Brian is. He's shown flashes, but has lacked consistency which has forced the offense into frequent third and long situations - of course, the QBs for the most part couldn't convert a third and 8 against the Dillon Panthers.

Bills Gab says Losman is worried about his job. He should give Drew Bledsoe a call for some inspiration.

And big props go out to the Goose's Roost for throwing a link to my blog up on their page. Go check them out (they're also over on the left). Right now, the talk is turning more to the Sabres - I need to dive back into hockey already? All I know is that my fellow Terrier Chris Drury is a punk.

and last, but not least:

The Baseball Update

Lots of great stuff from the Sox blogs over the past week celebrating the division. You've already seen my position by position breakdown - I predict Sox in 4 - here are what the other Sox blogs are talking about:

Jere from A Red Sox Fan from Pinstripe Territory had an assload of pictures from Friday night's clincher. Click here and keep scrolling.

El Guapo's Ghost rightly notes that the underreported story so far is the Angels injury issues - Gary Mathews and Bartolo Colon will miss the series and Vlad the impaler is dinged as well - could be limited to DH duty (which would pust Chone "Sean" Figgins to the OF and require Kendrick and Izturis to play in the IF).

Keep Your Sox On (which is an excellent blog) has the breakdown of the series - concluding, obviously, that the Sox are the better team statistically and on paper (although I don't put any stock at all in the season series advantage the Sox have).

Aaaand.. Sawx Blog has the roundup of the rest (conventional media, other blogs, Angels blog - seriously - just one). Go take a look.

That's it for tonight. Quick predictions I guess are in order (for the record, I predicted the Sox, Cubs and Angels as division winners and nailed the Yanks as the wildcard. Unfortunately the rest of my NL picks were a mess - Mets to win the East, Houston to win the WC and LA to win the west).

Cubs over D-Backs in 5
Rockies over Phils in 4
Indians over Yanks in 5
Sox over Angels in 4

Monday, October 1, 2007

Monday Links

Linking around today... By category:

The Bills

From the Goose's Roost is the crowning of the Trent Edwards era. Vince Wilfork = Mo Lewis?

Here is the BfloBlog's recap of yesterday's game. I echo the concerns about the conservative playcalling.

Circling the Wagons has its report card up already. I don't agree with the B- for the WRs - they bailed out Trent Edwards with numerous jumps and leaps.

The Sox

A ton of pics from Friday night's clincher from a A Sox Fan in Pinstripe Territory. Still no isolated video of Papelbon dancing like an idiot.

El Guapo's Ghost breaks down the Sox October roster. He notes that Javier Lopez has been useless as a LOOGY this year.

Ahhh... HERE his video of Papelbon and Youk dancing. still not the crazy G.O.B. dance I saw replayed on NESN, but good nonetheless. Thank you over the monster

More later.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Bills, sox and other thoughts

An excellent sports Sunday. Let's take 'em one at a time.

1. The Bills. Solid 17-14 win over the Jets. There was a little bit of nervousness at the beginning (shades of the season opener against the Broncos), but they pulled it out thanks to Pennington's second INT of the day (very nice to see Terence McGee back in there). A few things to note:

-- The game ball goes to Trent Edwards. I don't know if, or why the playcalling was different today than in the first three games, but Edwards took advantage. There were more 10-20 yard pass plays today than the first 3 weeks combined. He was well protected so had time to check down when necessary. He needs to manage the pocket better (he got sacked in the first half simply because he held on to the ball too long), but he seemed even to do that better by the second half. An auspicious start.

-- Jabari Greer is growing up right before our eyes. Pressed into starting duty, he was solid, breaking up a couple of sure Jets completions. I did not see him get burnt all day.

-- Nice of Lee Evans to show up, but, again, who knows how much of that is playcalling.

-- Evans and the other WRs bailed out Edwards on a few occasions, making circus catches.

-- The Jets running offense and pass defense are awful. Run D is less awful, but still failed when needed most (Lynch's only real impressive run of the day - the first Bills TD).

Next week, Dallas at home on Monday night. GO BILLS.

None of Blfo Blog, Buffalo Rumblings or Buffalodown have the game stories up yet, but check them out later tonight.

2. The Sox. I haven't blogged about them (or anything) this past week, but they obvously were able to hang on and take the division. Everyone is healthy, Schill, Dice-K and Pap have momentum going into the postseason. Beckett too, the last start notwithstanding. First round matchup is the Angels. As of today, I don't know if the Sox will be playing the series with the extra day, but I like the matchups overall. Presumably, it will be Beckett-Lackey, Schilling-Escobar, Dice-K-Weaver, and then, if necessary, Wakefield-Colon or Santana. I like every one of those matchups for the Sox.

The on-field celebration Friday night was tremendous. Fans were in Fenway watching the end of the Orioles come from behind 11-10 win over the Yanks and once that was complete, the celebration commenced. Papelbon is a nut. I haven't found great isolated video of Papelbon doing the G.O.B. dance from Arrested Development, but once I do, I will post it. In the meantime, I have this:



go to about 2:39 to see Pap walking around like an idiot and 3:25 to see Ortiz, ahem, "giving it" to Pap with a bottle of champagne.

And then here:



At 1:34, you can see the Bud Light helmet, at 6:35 giving a beer shower to Katharyn Tappen. Oh, and at 3:50, you see Varitek actually acting like a human being.

3. Taxes. Via the Tax Profs Blog, is this story about a new bill introduced by Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), that would limit the tax deduction for stock option compensation to the amount reported to investors for financial reporting purposes. Of course, the amount reported for financial reporting purposes is the fair value at grant, while the tax aspect is the spread at exercise. We'll see what happens, but there is parity in the tax law already on this - a firm deducts only the amount already included in an employee's income.

More on dad later.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Sunday Evening Update

Yuck.

Nasty.

Nachos! (at least my lunch wasn't ruined)

The Bills were putrid in nearly every phase of the game today. (The punting was, as usual, good). Losman looked lost (Lostman?). Lynch was mainly shut down (mostly because the blocking up front was not good). Even against the non-stop blitzing, the playcalling did not adjust - didn't see any screens, draws, etc. Where was the coaching staff? And at some point you have got to take the training wheels off. Let Losman throw the ball downfield. I only counted two attempts over 25 yards in the entire game. Unacceptable.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills played a bend but don't break defense in the first half, which absolutely killed them on third downs. The Steelers converted 7 of their first 9, including a 3rd and 7 and a 3rd and 10 (at least). They could not get any kind of pressure on Roethlisberger and when they did could not contain. At some level I understand the Steelers are simply better, but apart from holding them to field goals at the end of drives, the Bills just did not look interested.

Now, the Kevin Everett situation may have been weighing on the team, but I don't think so. They didn't look flat, at least in the first quarter. Lynch was fired up. Defense was fired up. They just executed really, really poorly, and then gave up late in the game.

Two plusses: Moorman, as usual. And i do applaud Jauron's decision to go for it on a 4th in Steeler territory (around the 40 iirc). Even though they didn't convert, it was the right call.

Buffalo Rumblings has a good pseudo-live blog.

Also putrid so far - My NFL Picks. 5-8-1 through the late afternoon games. Thankfully, my Bears pick in my suicide pool is still alive.

Off to watch 60 Minutes (the highlight shows are now unwatchable), then flipping back and forth between the Pats-Chargers (27-17 Pats) and the Sox-Yanks (4-1 Sox). See you all later.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

The Baseball Update

Flipping around the games tonight. Sox are still down 4-3 in the 8th as I write this but, you know, It's the Devil Rays.

The NL Central and wild card races are a mess. I just caught a little of Cards-Reds, but the Cards look horrible. I can't figure out where the runs come from in that offense, and at this point, I've lost track of how many retreads they have in their rotation. Looper? Pineiro? (who I actually like). The Brewers seem fun to root for and will be amazing on offense for a long time (the guys who aren't already signed to long-term contracts won't be free agents for a while). The Cubs, hey, what can you say. I picked them to win the division at the beginning of the year, so of course I'm rooting for them (and for the story as well). But they have significant flaws (the Big Z, the way he is going, the pen, offensive balance). Fun chase, the best going, but no worthy playoff teams.

Last I checked, the Yanks were having their way with the Jays. The Jays really are a sad story. Kind of like the Bills in a certain respect. Neither has been relevant since the early '90s, and while both teams make significant moves/splashes (Jays: B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, Bills: Takeo Spikes, Peerless Price), the guys they get, aren't nearly as good as how they played before they arrived. The Bills, of course, have had more near-misses and have never attained the prize (although, as a former Jays fan, I think their "prize" was tainted in that they basically bought the championship and then pulled a '97 Marlins following '93 - even without the lockout they would have had to drastically slash costs). I don't know. Seems like a lot of moving sideways, which is worse in my book than tearing it down and starting over.

So.. Three things I noticed: (1) Following on this post, tonight, the little things went the other way tonight - Youk getting called out on a horrible mis-call by the first place ump on a checked swing. Totally changed the momentum of the inning. There were first and second with one out when Youk struck out. Who knows how that AB would have ended up had the ump gotten it right ... Then Varitek, grounding out on a 2-0 pitch (it was ball 3) after back to back walks by the TB pitcher. HOW DO YOU NOT TAKE IN THAT POSITION? Or at least "cut down the zone". Instead, he swings at a pitch practically in the dirt. Again, he is slipping. Big time. Anyway, the little things made the difference tonight. (2) I shouldn't rag too much on the TB pen. They had a good night tonight. Ed. Note: Until the last hitter. YEAH!!!! Actually, Edwin Jackson had a great night, the HR to Papi notwithstanding. He's a beacon of hope for the Rays. The guy is 23 years old and after starting the season 0-8 has gone 4-6 since with a 57/39 K/BB ratio (it was better before a couple recent starts). Not great, I know, but (i) he's dropped his ERA by more than 2 runs since starting 0-8, (ii) he, like Kazmir, is only 23 and (iii) had sick numbers for the Dodgers in the minors before being prematurely called up. (3) The Sox should shut Lester down for the rest of the year. He's not particularly effective and just hasn't seemed right since he came back. Great story and all, but there is no need for him to pitch in games right now. They can have him throw on the side and pitch sim games if they want, but him pitching in these games is doing no good. Tavarez would be fine in that role.

Some links:

A Sox Fan in Hell with a great haiku - I particuarly like the fifth stanza (do haikus, or senryus, for that matter, have stanzas?)

I have no idea what the guys at Maldanado over everything are talking about, but it seems fun. I like the idea of a blog dedicated to a slightly-above average outfielder who just happened to have posted the best OPS among Jays OFs since 1992.

An EPIC Take down of a Mike Pagliarulo site (apparently offering scouting services or something) by Ken Tremendous at firejoemorgan.com. A bit long, but worth the read. And no, I've never heard the phrase "money blanket" before.

The Death Update

Joe Zawinul, fusion keyboardist. Played with Miles. I don't have any of his tracks, other than "Birdland" when he was with Weather Report (see below). I will need to get some. Forerunner to Herbie. Solid. Obit is here



/HOLY &!%!&! PAPI HITS A WALKOFF

The Taxes Update

No update. Slow day today. New farm bill to be introduced

So, to recap. Devil Rays pen? Not so good. Papi? The MAN.

/Night

Morning Links

Fire Brand of the AL has last night's game story.

Keep Your Sox On compares last night's game to a traditional Greek tragedy. So who was the chorus?

Over the Monster breaks down a just awful, Stark-ian, if you will, piece on mlb.com about the AL Cy Young race. Any piece that (1) puts Wang in the top tier of Cy candidates and (2) even mentioned Joe Borowski in the same neighborhood as Cy Young is DOA.

And I went for the easy joke and called Joe Maddon a Uncle Junior lookalike:




Surviving Grady does much better by describing his "Grandpa who digs on The Arcade Fire and knows the guy from Yo La Tengo personally" eyeware. Well done.



Hopefully Kevin Everett will walk again. Good news, really remarkable news, so far.

Buffalo Rumblings details the now thin Bills defense since Ko Simpson is now out for the year. It's going to be an ugly season.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Everett Reportedly Slightly Better

This from ESPN.com is encouraging. Kevin Everett apparently has some movement of his arms and legs. Good for him. I hope he has as full as recovery as possible.

The whole story reminds me of course of Travis Roy. I saw the game on tv and it wasn't clear at the time how severe the injury was. 11 seconds. Now that was a Moonlight Graham (Peter King had called Everett a "Moonlight Graham" in MMQB this week because his career stats are 1 catch for 1 yard). Of course Roy never walked again.