All Apologies

Not just a great Nirvana song, but what I am offering to anyone who came here from the Goose's Roost or Bflo Blog (or anywhere else) and got stuck reading the last few lame posts. What can I say? My dedication has been lacking. Also, the TaxWife has had me on this crazy diet the last week that has sapped my energy. Now that I've discovered cocaine, it's all good and I'm back to bloggin'...

The Taxes Update

Of course this week's big athlete tax news was Derek Jeter's tax woes. The taxman is coming after Mr. Clutch for his position that he is a nonresident of New York State and City, despite the fact that he maintains an apartment in the city and lives here half the year. The rest of the year he apparently lives in Florida.

The law on this is not actually all that clear. The first test is whether someone spends 183 days in the state. Assuming Mr. Worst Defensive SS in the AL actually spends the offseason in Florida and given the number of days he is on the road during the season, he probably is not physically present in New York State for the required 183 days.

The state is asserting that even though he does not meet this test that New York is still his primary residence based on his affinity for the city (e.g., his business ties in New York, holidays spent in New York, and, particularly, keeping items he holds "near and dear" to him in his New York apartment). This filing from the Admin. law judge in the case is illuminating. In taxgeek parlance, New York is his "tax home".

The idea is that while he may physically spend fewer than 180 days in New York, his home in New York is a home while a house in Florida is just a house - more like an offseason rental to which he has no connection. It's an interesting theory and to be honest, I haven't dug into the black letter law in New York to know if it would be enough, but we'll follow it.

The Tax Foundation notes that this is differernt than the "Jock Tax" that taxes a portion of every athlete's income in the state in which the game is played. New York is going after endorsement income, income earned in other states, etc.

Don't Mess With Taxes has a good piece on New York revenue officials' clutch performance in past cases.

The other big tax news was the continuing saga in DC of AMT relief. After some conflicting stories (it appeared for a day that the Senate would at least vote on a bill to provide a 1 year AMT patch with limited offsets solely for popular tax extenders), this do-nothing Congress continued to do nothing. So, it's at least December before any AMT relief is passed.

NFL Picks

No commentary needed (or necessary). You should be reading the Jamboroo for a funny NFL preview column.

Chargers (+3) over JAGUARS. Yes, I know people are jumping off the Philip Rivers bandwagon and that San Diego barely held on against Indy last week despite 6 picks (like Dallas against the Bills), but that defense is still solid and I think Garrard will have some rust in his first game back in a month.

Browns (-2.5) over RAVENS. Yeah, the Ravens really really suck.

Steelers (-9.5) over JETS. I almost took the Jets, but I cannot stand them. I mean, look at this guy:



Washington (+10.5) over COWBOYS.

DOLPHINS (+10) over Eagles. The Dolphins have played almost everyone close this year. They're the best 0-9 team I have ever seen.

Raiders (+5) over VIKINGS

Cardinals (+3) over BENGALS

Chiefs (+14.5) over COLTS. I don't care what Dr. Z says, Peyton is not the same without all of his toys. Just like the TaxBoy. If he's surrounded by the rattle, the horse on a string, the plastic balls that make noise, he's happy. If he has just the stupid fake phone? He throws six INTs.

LIONS (+2.5) over Giants. I'm a little surprised that the Lions are getting points at home, but then again, last time I went to Vegas, I came back looking like this:



Saints (-1) over TEXANS. This is where I call BS on one of the SportsGuy's theories - that early in the season nobody knows anything about the teams and that Vegas struggles just as much as the regular gambler. O.k. First, I don't believe Vegas struggles at all, ever, as compared to the regular degenerate gambler. Second, we're in week 11 and I still can't tell if the Saints, Chargers, Panthers, Washington, Seahawks, Cardinals and about 3 other teams are going to play halfway decent football or stink it up worse than Northrax.

Packers (-9.5) over Panthers. Case in point, although with Vinny starting and Steve Smith maybe not, this should be an easy one for the Favrers.

(Which reminds me of something else annoying - some moron talking head was talking about how Favre was doing this "all himself". I'm sure that Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Nick Barnett and Charles Woodson were all happy to hear that. This team does have the second best rushing defense and fifth best defense overall in the NFC).

Rams (-3) over NINERS

Bears (+5.5) over SEAHAWKS

Titans (+2) over BRONCOS

BILLS (+16) over Patriots. Hell Yeah! This game being on Sunday night is great for a whole bunch of reasons. 1. I get to do work during the day and not feel guilty about watching the game (which I will be doing totally sober due to the aforementioned f*cked up diet). 2. I get to hear John Madden talk about Turducken and Buffalo Wings at the same time. 3. Now I can watch the MLS finals without missing any important NFL game action (score update: 0-0).

Bonus: I get to bust out my Marshawn Lynch "Money" t-shirt, recently purchased from 289 design, even though he won't be playing.

Score Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 20. (Hoping for the upset though).

That's it, all. Enjoy the games.

(I notice that I missed calling the TB game. Let's just say that I did not have Atlanta. That one is going in the win column)

For Avoidance of Doubt

Here were my NFL picks. And unfortunately, I took New Orleans in the Kissing Suzy Kolber suicide pool. not looking good there...

Vikings (+6.5) over PACKERS

CHIEFS (-4.5) over Broncos

Bills (-2.5) over Dolphins (ugh)

Rams (+11.5) over SAINTS

BROWNS (+9.5) over Steelers

Jags (-4.5) over TITANS

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Eagles

RAVENS (-5.5) over Bengals

Lions (+1.5) over CARDINALS. Incidentally, this really seems strange to me. The Lions are getting no respect from Vega$

GIANTS (+1.5) over Cowboys

RAIDERS (-3.5) over Bears

Colts (-3.5) over CHARGERS

SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49Ers

That's it for now.

Quick Picks

I haven't blogged all week (post Sox comedown, I think). But here are the quick picks with Tax and Death Updates to come today (and a postgame report on the Bills).

BILLS (+1) over Bengals Yeah, Losman in again (as he should have been last week anyway). He should be able to complete at least one bomb to his own guys today. And what's this I see? Fucking Solomon Wilcots is calling the game? Good Christ - I get to listen about how well the "Bee-ills" are playing today. Maybe I'll listen to the NFL audio coverage at nfl.com.

LIONS (-3) over Broncos

TITANS (-4) over Panthers David Carr on the road? No thank you.

CHEIFS (-2) over Packers I have to believe arrowhead is good for something.

Chargers (-7) over VIKINGS

FALCONS (-3.5) over Niners Simmons's "sleeper" is comatose, but the Niners are Schaivo-tose at this point.

SAINTS (-3) over Jaguars

Washington (-3.5) over JETS The Jets can go straight to hell.

Cardinals (+3.5) over BUCS

Seahawks (+1) over BROWNS

Pats (-5.5) over COLTS

Texans (+3) over RAIDERS

EAGLES (+3) over Cowboys

STEELERS (-9) over Ravens

Go here for the best NFL preview going.

And here is Bflo Blog's tailgate.

Enjoy the games, and don't forget - this guy is the WORST commentator going. God he sucks.

Quick NFL Picks

Real quick this week, I have $hit to do around the house...

Browns (-3) over RAMS. Norm van Brocklin is spinning in his grave.

BEARS (-5) over Lions. I believe in the power of Griese.

BUCS (-3.5) over Jags. Yes, feel the power of the favorites this week.

Panthers (+7) over COLTS. I really want the Colts to lose to take some of the craziness out of next week's Pats-Colts matchup.

Bills (+3) over JETS. Seriously, how could you ever root for a team that presents this guy as the face of the franchise?



Also, this is the first real "test" for Trent Edwards as it seems he now really has a handle on the starting job. I'm worried about Kelsay possibly not playing, but I like the Bills to come on strong in the second half this year and get to 6-10.

(by the way, the Goose's Roost had this excellent piece on the whole QB "controversy", which was ridiculous in the first place.

BENGALS (+3.5) over Steelers . Pittsburgh was exposed last week and Cincy has been playing better. By the way - there haven't been any stories this year about how the Bengals are staying out of trouble, have there?

Eagles (-1) over VIKINGS . Because Philly just can't be this bad.

Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS. I don't think Tennessee is built to blow teams out.

Saints (-2.5) over 49ERS. So who was the Saint who posted this craigslist ad? (link via deadspin). My money's on Aaron Stecker.

Dolphins (+9.5) over Giants. (neutral field). I'd say the Dolphins win outright if the Jason Taylor robot can find a way to get into the game.

PATRIOTS (-16) over Washington. 7-0 ATS this year and this is the week everyone is giving up on them. Um, inexperienced QB on the road against Belichick? check. Richard Seymour getting back into the game for the Pats to stabilize run defense? check. I say DC pots no more than 10 points on the board. 31-10 Pats.

BRONCOS (-3) over Packers. Farve continues his seasonal transition from God to Moron - as the leaves turn, you can count on it.

CHARGERS (-9) over Texans. QB situation is nasty in Houston, otherwise I would take them. I don't see Norv as a "bring the boys together" coach - he's more a "what play do I call again?" coach.

Quick NFL Thoughts

The Bills play the Ravens today in Buffalo. It's homecoming for Willis McGahee. There has been quite a bit of trash-talking by Bills fans this week, in anticipation of McGahee's return. Some of it has been over the top. However, let's take a look at what this classy guy said on his way out of town last year:

Coming from Miami, I was used to partying, going out, just having something to do every night. Restaurants, whatever. Going to Buffalo, it was like hitting a brick wall. Like, Damn. Can't go out, can't do nothing. There's an Applebee's, a TGI Friday's, and they just got a Dave & Busters. They got that, and I'm like, 'What the' And, you know, the women?

You see, when I was in college that's what I used to thrive off of. The better you do, the more fame you get. So you know, it was like, I was used to that. And then you get to Buffalo and no matter how you do, it's the same. It's no big city. You know what I did every day? I came home and played video games.

That's nice. Typicl grad of The U. Anyway, hopefully the Bills' Run D will get up for the game - unlikely given their record thus far, but a fan can hope.


BfloBlog has the tailgate report.

Buffalo Rumblings breaks down the Ravens.

Goose's Roost has a better takedown of McGahee than I could muster.

My prediction? This will be a close game. The Ravens offense, McGahee notwithstanding is gross. Boller has his last week in there and will be pressing to try to get another week as the starter. This will result in some takeaways for the Bills.

On the offensive side, Edwards will throw deep and hopefully link up with Evans for a couple of long plays. If he connects, they will win. If he doesn't they will lose. The game will come down to one or two big plays (because the Bills will not be able to move the ball with any real regularity) and takeaways.

The score: Ravens 16, Bills 14

The Quick Picks

COWBOYS (-9.5) over Vikings

BILLS (+3) over Ravens

Bucs (+2) over LIONS What have the Lions done the last 3 weeks to inspire any confidence?

Patriots (-16.5) over DOLPHINS

SAINTS (-9) over Falcons

GIANTS (-9) over Niners This is the week that Eli reverts to last season's Eli, of course.

WASHINGTON (-9) over Cardinals Well there goes my theory that the SG doesn't use the racist nickname. Wonder why it said Washington last week and Redskins this week.

Titans (-1) over TEXANS

BENGALS (-6) over Jets I hate the Jets

Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS

Rams (+8) over SEAHAWKS I thought Qwest Field was supposed to be a tough place to play?

EAGLES (-5) over Bears Wow, I am taking a lot of favorites this week.

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Steelers For avoidance of doubt, I also hate the freaking Steelers.

Jags (+3) over COLTS I hope.

That's it - enjoy the games.

Also, Paul Byrd is a cheating cheater.

Sunday Morning Updates

The Baseball Update

Well, you win one, you lose one as the Sox swapped 7 run wins and losses with the Indians. To be honest, I went to bed as soon as I saw Gagne come out to pitch the 11th.

Three Things I Noticed: (1) Schilling actually did not pitch that badly, except for the mistake to Jhonny "don't spell my name right" Peralta. Unfortunately "not that badly" doesn't cut it in the ALCS. He wasn't his "all time best ERA in the postseason" best last night. (2) Papelbon was a stud as usual, which is good to see in case the Sox ever have a 9th inning lead needing protecting. (3) Manny Ortez is still hitting the cover off the ball. Ortiz is hitting .615 with an OBP of .783 and Manny is hitting .429 with an OBP of .652. Unfortunately, Manny blew a goldent opportunity in the first inning to bust the game open early (and get Carmona out of there early) by GIDPing.

Bonus Thing I Noticed: MEMO TO TITO, JAVIER LOPEZ CANNOT GET OUT LEFTIES. They hit .293 against him in the regular season. He's not a LOOGY. Stop using him as if he were one.

Bonus Bonus.... Varitek? Must be hard catching with that fork sticking out of his back. He is totally lost out there - 8 Ks in 21 ABs. Unfortunately, we have no other options unless Youk gets out the big glove again (would be nice to have Kelly Shoppach right about now - If we hadn't taken back bard in '05 in the Crisp trade, we might still have him. Big mistake by Boy Wonder).

A look at some blogs:

Soxnest wishes that Game 2 (like Rocky V and the 1994 NBA season) never happened.

Keep your Sox On has a typically lucid recap of last night's debacle.

Peter's Red Sox Forever had the same sick feeling when Gagne came in.

As an aside, it's hard to know why Gagne has been this bad since joining the Sox. Pitching coach? Injury? Mental issues playing in Fenway? Whatever it is, I have zero confidence that he'll be able to straighten it out this season. He should simply not be a late inning option.

Sox & Dawgs are also scratching their head at bringing in Gagne in a 6-6 game. Maybe in addition to my sister site, I should start Fire Tito soon.

Game 3 tomorrow night in Cleveland. Dice-K (yikes-K) vs. Westbrook. Should be a slugfest, although the way the series has gone so far, who knows.

NFL Picks

Once again, quick picks as the Taxwife has breakfast ready. (as a reminder, using the same lines as the SG and Home Teams in ALLCAPS). Edited to note that the Saints are on the road and Seahawks at home this week

CHIEFS (+3) over Bengals

Jaguars (-6.5) over TEXANS

BROWNS (-4.5) over Dolphins

BEARS (-5) over Vikings

Eagles (-3.5) over JETS

Rams (+9.5) over RAVENS

Washinton (+3) over PACKERS I like that the SG uses the team nickname for everyone except Washington. Not sure if that's an ESPN editorial choice or not, but I like it.

Titans (+3) over BUCS

CARDINALS (-4.5) over Panthers Let's see. Delhomme out, Carr questionable. Oh my god... That.. that's Vinny Testaverde's music!!!

CHARGERS (-9.5) over Raiders

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Saints

Giants (-3.5) over FALCONS

Patriots (-5.5) over COWBOYS After last Monday night's disaster, I'm hoping for 38-3 Pats, but I'll expect 27-17 Pats.

That's all for now, taxes and death update later today.

Quick Sunday Updates

Poor blogging the past couple of days. Of course, the Sox are now up 2-0, the Yanks are down 2-0 and the NLCS is set with the old-school clash of the D-Backs and Rockies. I plan on doing an "ugliness breakdown" of the other series to see if my theory holds (that the ugliest team usually wins). That will come later. For now..

The Baseball Update

I've never experienced such a (so far) stress free playoff series as the Sox-Angels has been. Massive confidence going in, no stress when down or tied and a feeling of knowing they will pull it out in the end. Is this what it was like to be a Yankees fan from '96-'00?

Anyway, Game 3 is in 3+ hours - Schilling v. Jered Weaver. Again, from an uglieness standpoint, it is:



vs.



Come on. Who can resist those flowing blonde locks, and Schill, the Jack Bauer look ain't working for you.

Advantage: Sox

Three things I noticed: (1) The bullpen was sick. Thank god. Delcarmen has been pitching well for a while now, but it was great to see Okajima looking solid and Papelbon, while not getting strike calls he should have gotten, keeping it together and shutting down the Angels. (2) Dice-K looked awful. Some folks have been saying that he would have righted the ship, given the chance, but extremely hittable, still nibbling, missing spots. Not a Game 2 starter. If the Sox advance, he should be the Game 3 guy. (3) Again, the TBS crew was about a step or two behind during the game. Better than Game 1, but, for example, they made no note of the fact that Stephen King was clapping the back of 17 year old Joe Vinik when the latter stole a foul popup from Jeff Mathis. A detail that would have made the catch that much cooler went unnoticed. On the bright side, at least Jose Mota could string a sentence together. We'll see how they fare during Game 3.

Checking in with the Sox Blogs over the past couple of days:

Jere at Sox Fan from Pinstripe Territory has another spectacular photo gallery from Game 2. Check it out - good quips on Joba falling apart.

Keep your Sox On has some help from Tawny Kitaen and David Coverdale in describing the feeling of watching this team. It's kind of like what I said above - supreme confidence so far (hope we're not Icarus).

Over the Monster has thoughts from Game 2.

Joe McDonald at the projo blog has the weather report from Anaheim (windy) and the lineup - same as Games 1 and 2.

Sox and Dawgs has the report, via ESPN.com that Torre will exit stage left (via the hook) if the Yankees don't win the ALDS. Stupid move, but understandable.

Quick NFL Picks

Seeing as how it is 12:30, just time for quick picks (same lines as the SG, home teams in ALLCAPS):

SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
CHEIFS (+2) over Jaguars
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Lions (I still don't believe)
TITANS (-8) over Falcons
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Seahawks (+6) over STEELERS (Pittsburgh is not that good. I'll believe them when they beat someone good)
Browns (+16.5) OVER PATRIOTS (I mean, the Pats have to blow one of these big lines one of these days, right?)
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS (Frerotte? Frer-no)
GIANTS (-3.5) over Jets
Bucs (+9.5) over COLTS
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
NINERS (+3) over Ravens (Ravens offense falls apart this week). This one looks like a push to me
PACKERS (-3) over Bears
BILLS (+10) over Cowboys.

Bills are clearly not a good team, but (1) I always take them, and (2) I think their D will stand up and they will put enough points on the board to stay close - have the Cowboys really shut down a good offense this year?

On the Bills, here are the links (spotty so far since it's a Monday night game):

Nothing from BfloBlog so far.

Brian Galiford at Buffalo Rumblings has a breakdown of the Cowboys and confirms my assumption (above) that the 'Boys haven't really shut down a solid O yet (not that the Bills O is solid, but less to be afraid of).

Goose's Roost has no football news thus far, but does have a great photblog of the Sabres' home opener which, of course, they lost 6-4 to the Islanders (and they lost the second half of the home-at-home series last night 3-2).

Finally, in a post that warms my heart, Brian at Bflo Blog reports that longtime Buffalo sportscaster Ed Kilgore has a blog. Far be it from me to disparage anyone's blogging efforts, but I sense a little of "Kings Things" in this endeavor.

Enjoy!

Where have I been?

It's not appropriate for me to have this blog and take a week off, but that's what I've done.

In my defense, it was a tough week (first anniversary of dad's death - more on that later today (promise)), mom was visiting, sis had the new kid, etc., etc.

Anyway, Three posts today - first up NFL picks. Disgusting week last week - 5-8-3, which just further proves to me that I should never bet on sports, ever. Hopefully this week will be better.

Second post will be baseball and football related with a little tax news thrown in.

Third and last post of the day will be my recollections of the day dad died.

On to the picks. As always, home teams are in ALLCAPS and I don't know what the &%$# I am doing...

BILLS (+3.5) over Jets. Again, I don't pick against the Bills. They actually could do well against the Jets. They've shown, at least against Denver and NE and in the first half against Pitts, an ability to bend but not break on defense. Given the Jets' lack of a solid running game (I don't count Thomas Jones's day against the banged up Fins last week), they hopefully should be able to limit Pennington to underneath stuff. Key will be third downs. I see a low scoring affair 13-10 Jets. Also, Deadspin.com's Will Leitch will be in attendance, so the Bills have that going for them.

Raiders (+4) over DOLPHINS. The whole "it's hot in Miami and Oakland will be wearing black" card is ridiculous. Miami's O-face is less competent than Lunberg and Oakland's D is staunch as advertised. Combine that with Daunte getting the start and Miami's D being banged up and I see an Oakland win outright.

Ravens (-4.5) over BROWNS. Jamal Lewis looks good so far, although I don't think anyone has really run on the Ravens yet this year (nope - 62 ypg). Everyone is awfully down on the Ravens, but this team still went 13-3 last year, has basically the same team back (plus McGahee) and a stout offense as well. Derek Anderson is going to have a good day? I don't think so.

FALCONS (+2.5) over Texans. Joey Harrington is turning into a decent QB. Matt Schaub already is a decent QB. This one should be close.

Bears (-3) over LIONS. Brian Griese is better, statistically, than people remember. He went 16-12 as a starter in '01-'02 with a very good TD/INT ratio in '01. The reason why he got kicked out is that he didn't have the confidence of his teammates - lacked the leader instinct. Maybe that was just youth. Seems like Manning had those problems early in his career (Eli too, Chris Simms too - wonder if it is a son of a QB thing). Anyway, the Lions certainly are high-powered and the Bears are missing a ton of guys on D, but this seems like one the Bears will gut out.

Packers (-2) over VIKINGS. I am picking against a lot of home dogs this week, which will probably come back to bite me. Anyway, Packers look like the much better team and that line is within a FG, so I can't imagine not picking them.

Rams (+13) over COWBOYS. I hate these 2 TD lines. In a lot of cases, they've been covered (including a couple last week). And I know that Bulger is hurt and S-Jak may not play, but still. 13 is a lot of points. Rams are capable of putting up garbage time points, so I'll take them.

Bucs (+3) over PANTHERS. David Carr against a Bucs D that has been in shutdown mode so far this season? (12 ppg so far). And they're a dog? Sounds good to me. LOCK OF THE WEEK.

Seahawks (-2) over the NINERS. The Niners are proving to be what people said they would be. A little bit smoke. A little bit mirrors. They are 2-1, but they have been outscored on the season (granted the Steelers game was lopsided). I still stand by Seattle as my SB pick from the NFC and say they win this one in a laugher.

BUZZSAW (+6) over Steelers. I hate the &#!@*&! Steelers.

CHARGERS (-12) over Chiefs . This is the only +10 line I am taking this week. The Chargers must be pissed and are much better than how they have been playing. The Chiefs are awful, last week's win notwithstanding.

Broncos (+9.5) over COLTS. Another high line, although I can see a 27-17 win. The Colts have played teams close thus far and the Broncos haven't been that impressive; however, again, I think the Colts are due for a gashing 150 yard rushing performance against them, and this is the team to do it.

Eagles (-3) over GIANTS. Again, I hate the Giants as well. I also cannot go against the Eagles after the display last week and going up against the Giants weak D. If McNabb gets time, they should light the Giants up.

Patriots (-7.5) over BENGALS. As usual, I use the SG's lines which he prints on Friday. It opened a 7 and now you can find (-9) on some websites. I was leaning toward laying the points anyway (only thing that worried me was Bengals ability to keep the score close with their weapons), and with the movement of the line, my decision is solidified.

A few links to kick off this great Sunday:

Indispensible for fans of Buffalo sports is Bflo Blog. Many of the stories are now transitioning to the Sabres (thank God), but this link will take you to the "tailgate" summary for today's Jets-Bills matchup. Excellent work by these guys, including an open thread during the game.

Here is the open thread for today's game on Buffalorumblings.com, and here is the excellent summary of "what to watch for".

Unfortunately, many of the other Buffalo-themed sportsblogs (such as the funny Goose's Roost) have transitioned to Sabres coverage.

That's all for now. I'll be firmly planted on the couch today watching the Jets-Bills game. Unfortunately, we're stuck with Ian Eagle and Crazy-Eyez Solomon Wilcots. To wit:



Why can't we get Gus Johnson.

Quick NFL Picks

More to come later. Hope Teams in Caps

Colts (-6) over TEXANS. O.k. My lack of faith in the Colts D has been beaten down worse than Carlo Rizzi. Houston without Andre Johnson is like a gun with no bullets (although the gun wasn't that impressive in the first place).

Chargers (-5) over THE FAVRES. I'm hoping for a solid outing by the grey bearded one for my fantasy team's sake, but the Chargers are a better team than they looked last week (although still not as good as they think they are).

CHIEFS (-2.5) over Vikings. The Chiefs are downright terrible, but there must still be some advantage to playing in Arrowhead (the geographic arrangement of which is strange - it's out in a barren industrial area outside Kansas City, and right across the street from Kaufman Stadium).

Bills (+16.5) over PATRIOTS. I thought the college games were all yesterday. Nobody circles the .... whatever.

BUCS (-3.5) over Rams. The Bucs D still looks relatively impressive and Garcia is no joke. Also, I hate the Rams.

Lions (+6.5) over the EAGLES. Looks like Kevin Jones will play and apparently the Lions have God in their corner. Re. what McNabb said - I agree to a point, but the Eagles fans are going to give it to him right in the ear upon the first misstep.

Niners (+9) over STEELERS. The Steelers are good, but they've beaten up two sorry teams (I refuse at this point to believe that the Browns are decent). The Niners have been struggling with unreasonable expectations, and I think this is the week that they put it together and lose by 7.

JETS (-3) over Dolphins. Jets are another team that aren't awful. They got smoked by the Pats CLEARLY because the Pats were cheating and were a dropped pass or two away from beating the Ravens.

Buzzsaw (+8) over RAVENS. Arizona will do enough on offense to keep this closer than 8.

SEAHAWKS (-3) over Bengals. Seahawks are the best team in the NFC.

REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants. Washington looks relatively frisky as well. Plus, I hate the Giants.

RAIDERS (-3) over Browns. See above.

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Jags. I don't care if it's the "obvious" game. Denver are beasts at home.

FALCONS (+4) over Panthers. I still believe. Although, COME ON JAKE DELHOMME.

Cowboys (+3) over BEARS. I agree with the SG that the Bears are overrated, although the Cowboys would be supreme wimps not to punt to Devin Hester.

Titans (+4.5) over SAINTS. Don't care that it's in NO. They've looked disgusting and I will not support them until proven otherwise. I thought they were America's team. Also, Reggie Bush is now a poor man's Warrick Dunn.

The Baseball Update

Thankfully, I didn't see much of Friday night's meltdown, but all was made better by yesterday's win. Lead back to 5.5 with 13 to play. Gives them a magic number of 9. Not saying it's over (I remember the '87 Jays who blew a 3.5 game lead over the Tigers with 7 to play - damn you Manny Lee), but it's pretty close. Magic number to clinch at least the WC is 7.

From last night's game, Three things I noticed: (1) Varitek is done as a productive major league hitter. He should be dropped to 8th in the lineup (leave some speed at the 9th spot with Lugo). I was talking with a guy at work who said Varitek looks like a "guess hitter" at this point in his career, and judging by his swings last night, I couldn't agree more. (2) Tim McCarver and Josh Lewin might be the worst combination of baseball announcers this side of the South side of Chicago. Master of the obvious (McCarver) and master of the annoying (Lewin). Their discussion of the Joba Rules was silly and only something an actual Yankee fan would find interesting or clever (the idea that after midnight, it's the next day and now the Joba rules no longer apply. Ha. Very funny). And it only took them 'til the second batter of the top of the first to remind us all about Bucky Dent and 1978. Thanks, guys. WE GET IT!!! (3) Not worried about Beckett (although he had way too many full counts). Marginally worried about the following guys: Dice-K, Okajima, wakefield (although he always gets straightened out). Offensively, so long as Youk is not seriously injured, they will be fine, especially if they get Manny back.

Speaking of the Joba Rules, Here is a funny bit on the "expanded version" of the Joba Rules (Bugs and Cranks).

Some other links:

Red Sox Diary has the game story from last night's game Here

Vegas Watch is a great blog, some statistical analysis, some Vegas odds, and some links posted today.

One more Dying Quail has an interview with Tina Cervasio of NESN. (found via Vegas Watch).

The NFL Picks (no taxes or death update this weekend - possibly a life update later today as my sister appears to be in early labor).

This week, I'm going to use the same lines as Simmons as apparently there were pushes last week that didn't get reflected in my picks (either way, I was .500).

So away we go (Home team in CAPS)

Falcons (+10) over JACKSONVILLE. I'm a glutton for punishment, but I refuse to believe that the Falcons are 10 points worse than the Jags. Especially as the Jags have a lingering case of the Del Rios, which should be worth at least 3 points to ATL.

Bills (+10) over PITTSBURGH. See last week's post. I don't pick against the Bills. Their defense is seriously banged up, but I think the emotions from the Kevin Everett situation will keep them close. Losman looks disgusting, however.

Bengals (-7) over BROWNS. Cleveland also looks disgusting. PREDICTION: Quinn sees time today and will be starting by Week 4.

GIANTS (-1.5) over Packers. The interesting thing coming out of last week's debacle against the Cowboys was that Derrick Ward actually looked better than Brandon Jacobs.

TITANS (+7) over Colts. This one is screaming for a PUSH. As everyone knows, the Titans played the Colts close last year and are improved on offense this year. I know I said I was not convinced by the Colts D and, despite the Week 1 showing, I'm still not fully convinced. We'll see.

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Texans. Now watch as Delhomme pulls his Mr. Hyde impression after being Dr. Jekyll last week.

Saints (-3) over BUCS. Tampa's D looked relatively good last week, but I don't think there is any way the Saints are as bad as they looked against the Colts. Another one screaming for a PUSH. I'm guessing 17-14 Saints.

Niners (+3) over RAMS. Man, another team that looked much worse than people expected, the Niners were lucky to escape AZ with a win. Not sure, actually, why I am picking them here. I guess because Week 1 seemed like an inaccurate representation of many teams (Niners, Saints, Falcons) - which will be corrected this week.

Cowboys (-3.5) over DOLPHINS. Seems like a no-brainer. miami is gross.

Vikings (+3) over LIONS. I'm picking against a lot of home teams this week, but the Vikes looked pretty solid last week; although so did the Lions. Understand this: I have no idea what I am doing here.

BEARS (-12) over Chiefs. How, exactly, is Herman Edwards still employed? LJ does not look good, either.

Ravens (-10) over JETS. Mangenius is a genius if only for diverting attention from how lousy the Jets played last week. Pats could have scored 1 or 2 more TDs easily.

Seahawks (-2.5) over CARDS. So, the Seahawks made the Super Bowl two years ago and have essentially the same cast as they did then? And they're just 2.5 point favorites over the Cardinals? Okaaaaaay.

Raiders (+9.5) over BRONCOS. Denver did not look particularly good against the Bills and, but for a ridiculous decision by the Bills to throw a bomb on 3rd and 5 with 2:42 to play (???) and a ridiculous effort by Elam to kick the winning FG, they would be 0-1 with questions flying around about Cutler's accuracy. Raiders D is better than the Bills. I see the Raiders actually winning this game.

Redskins (+7) over EAGLES. Jeez, how many teams are there in the NFL anyway? I'm getting tired.

PATS (-3) over Chargers. So I guess this means these teams are essentially even. Thankfully none of the talking heads on Boston sports radio were talking about "distractions" this week. They're going to blow the Chargers off the field.

A couple of football links:

The Tailgate from bfloblog. a breakdown of the Bills-Steelers game. My score prediction is 27-20 Steelers.

The Patriots Roundtable via Boston Sports Media Watch. Good breakdown of the Pats-Chargers matchup.

The Obligatory Picks and Predictions Post

regular programming later tonight

So for the zero readers who may want to put down some fake money (wait, [0] times [fake money] = Rich Rich Rich!!!), herewith are the picks and predictions.

The Picks (home teams in CAPS)

Saints (+6.5) over the COLTS. No built in advantage playing in the dome. Everyone seems healthy. Just seems like too many points and I'm not sold on the Colts D.

BILLS (+3.5) over the Broncos. Just because. This is probably a bad pick, but I never pick against the Bills at home. Even in September. Plus, one of my fantasy teams is named Losman's flowing Locks, so I'm obligated here.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over the BROWNS. I have no idea what to make of the Browns. This seems like an easy one.

Philly (-2.5) over GREEN BAY. Although I hope for the sake of the aforementioned Losman's Locks that Favre reverses recent history against the Eagles.

HOUSTON (-1.5) over Kansas City. Seems like Houston should be at least (-3) at home. KC is horrible.

Tennessee (+5.5) over JACKSONVILLE. Was Del Rio actually ever a good coach?

Atlanta (+2.5) over MINNESOTA. I think I might be drinking the SG Kool-aid.

Pats (-5.5) over JETS. J E T S Shut the $!&* Up!!! God I hate the Jets. I still remember Frank Lewis almost busting one against them in the '82 postseason only to get dragged down short of a TD.

RAMS (-1.5) over Cackalacka. This looks like another one I will be wrong on. Especially with Holt's injury.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Miami. Art Monk Belongs in the Hall of Fame! Art Monk Belongs in the Hall of Fame!

OAKLAND (-2.5) over Detroit. I have not drunk the Detroit Kool-Aid. Shaky QB? Check. Ponderous RB situation? Check. Mad Scientist Offensive Coordinator? Check.

WHALE'S VAGINA (-5.5) over Chicago. Line seems high, but I am scared of San Diego this year.

SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay. Tampa has the chance to ruin about 99% of the suicide pools out there.

DALLAS, (-3.5) over the Giants. If there is a god. And I hate the Giants.

Baltimore (+3.5) over the CRIMINALS. They won't go 13-3 again, but they should walk in that division (and given that McNair is their QB, walking seems about appropriate).

SAN FRAN (-3.5) over Arizona. Please. Arizona? Neither party is mine. The Jackass or the Elephant.

Predictions

AFC Playoff Teams: 1. San Diego. 2. New England. 3. Indianapolis. 4. Baltimore. 5. Pittsburgh. 6. Buffalo

Indy over Buffalo, Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Pats over Indy, San Diego over Pittsburgh

Pats over San Diego

NFC Playoff Teams

1. New Orleans. 2. Seattle. 3. Chicago. 4. Philly. 5. San Francisco. 6. Washington

Chicago over Washington, Philly over San Fran

Saints over Philly, Seattle over CHicago

Seattle over Saints

Pats over Seattle in the Super Bowl